A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
Politics was firmly back in the driver’s seat of global markets on Monday, not least after a surprise weekend win for right-wing fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi that sets her up to be Japan’s first female prime minister.
The Nikkei sliced through several big psychological levels in the first minutes of trading in setting a fresh all-time high not far from 48,000. Long-dated bond yields, meanwhile, jumped to be just shy of record peaks on worries about the country’s finances.
Short-dated yields pulled back sharply and the yen plunged to an unprecedented low versus the euro on speculation Takaichi could pressure the Bank of Japan to delay further rate hikes.
At the same time, gold extended its record rally to just $75 short of $4,000 per ounce, while bitcoin vaulted above $125,000 for the first time on Sunday.
The ostensible driver is the U.S. government shutdown, which is shaping up to be a protracted affair, as another vote failed in the Senate on Friday and Republican President Donald Trump threatened more funding cuts to Democratic states and more firings of federal workers.
The reasons for the record rallies in alternative assets might run deeper though, as faith in the value of fiat currencies – already battered by the White House’s open and active pursuit of a weaker dollar – takes another blow from Takaichi’s ascension. JPMorgan calls it the “debasement trade”.
What’s in store today for European stocks – already perched at record highs – is less clear, with futures currently more or less flat.
While Japanese stocks are soaring, most other major Asian markets are closed today, or thinner than usual.
Mainland China, Taiwan and South Korea are shut, while Hong Kong trading is sandwiched between the weekend and a holiday on Tuesday.
Australian markets are open, but half of the country’s states and territories have holidays today, including the most populous, New South Wales.
There’s little in the way of data on Europe’s docket, with regional construction PMIs providing the highlight.
There are plenty of central bank speakers though, including ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England boss Andrew Bailey taking the podium at separate venues.
Kansas City Fed chief Jeffrey Schmid is also scheduled for speaking duty.
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
-European construction PMIs (Sep)
-Euro-area retail sales (Aug)
-ECB President Lagarde speaks in Strasbourg, ECB Vice-President de Guindos and Bank of Spain Governor Escriva speak in Madrid, ECB chief economist Lane speaks in Frankfurt
-BoE Governor Bailey speaks in Edinburgh
-Kansas City Fed President Schmid speaks in Kansas City
-U.S. government shutdown
(Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Sam Holmes)
Comments