While their Heisman Trophy hopes may have taken direct hits over the weekend, the fortunes of four quarterbacks continue to be on the rise when it comes to projecting the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft.
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the new favorite for the top pick in next year’s draft at FanDuel.
He is being offered at +300. The Cal transfer did throw an interception in a close win over unranked Iowa, but Mendoza also tossed a pair of touchdown passes and is completing 73 percent of his passes this season.
Mendoza has thrown for 1,208 yards and 16 touchdowns against the lone interception through five games. That has helped trim his odds of being the No. 1 overall pick next spring from +700 at the book just a week ago.
2026 NFL DRAFT NO. 1 PICK ODDS*
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (+300)
LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina (+350)
Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU (+460)
John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma (+1300)
Rueben Bain Jr., DE, Miami, Fla. (+1500)
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon (+1900)
Drew Allar, QB, Penn State (+2200)
Arch Manning, QB, Texas (+2500)
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama (+2500)
Jayden Maiava, QB, Southern Cal (+2700)
Carson Beck, QB, Miami, Fla. (+2700)
Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State (+2700)
Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson (+3000)
*FanDuel
South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers, briefly the Heisman favorite earlier this season before suffering a concussion, is being offered at +350.
LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is almost out of the Heisman conversation following LSU’s loss to Ole Miss on Saturday. More concerning has been his continued mediocre play. Nussmeier has thrown seven touchdowns and three interceptions while completing a career-best 67.3 percent of his passes, but has struggled to establish LSU’s vertical passing game on a consistent basis. He declined questions about his health as speculation about playing hurt popped up in recent weeks.
Still, the 6-foot-1, 205-pound Lake Charles, La., native continues to intrigue NFL scouts looking for a traditional pocket passer. He remains +460 to go No. 1 overall, although that is down from +320 before being held under 200 passing yards by Ole Miss.
There is a significant dropoff to the fourth-shortest odds, currently owned by Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer. Another previous Heisman favorite who is now on the outside looking in while recovering from hand surgery, Mateer is +1300 at FanDuel in top draft pick futures.
The shortest odds for a non-quarterback belong to Miami (Fla.) pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr. at +1500. Through four games, Bain has produced a pair of sacks along with four tackles for loss and an interception to help shorten his odds from +2000 last week. Bain is the only non-quarterback among the top 10.
Arch Manning, the favorite to go No. 1 overall before the season began, remains in the picture at +2500. However, there is growing speculation that he may return to college in 2026 given his significant struggles through the first month. He is just behind Oregon’s Dante Moore (+1900) and Penn State’s Drew Allar (+2200), who squared off in Oregon’s win at Penn State on Saturday.
Moore got the best of Allar, who threw an interception on the first play of Penn State’s second possession in overtime. Allar was +1300 last week and still offers an intriguing blend of size at 6-5, 235 along with mobility, but has struggled to impress in many of his biggest games with the Nittany Lions.
–Field Level Media
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