March 27 (Reuters) – Global markets are coming to the end of a dizzying first quarter, dominated by geopolitics and now, war.
U.S. President Donald Trump has given Tehran into April to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its power infrastructure, meaning another 10 nail-biting days for investors who will also be dealing with major macro data and the first quarterly earnings.
Here’s all you need to know about the coming week by Gregor Stuart Hunter in Singapore; Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Marc Jones, Sophie Kiderlin and Amanda Cooper in London.
1/EVERYTHING, EVERYWHERE, ALL AT ONCE
Q1 is coming to an end, giving traders a chance to square up and reflect on an extraordinary few months where the world’s financial markets have been at the mercy of geopolitics.
The Iran war has wiped roughly $7 trillion off global stocks since it erupted. Oil and gas prices are up nearly 70% and 85%, respectively year to date. Suddenly interest rates are heading up, rather than down, and energy-hungry AI does not look such a slam-dunk anymore.
Even before the Middle East kicked off, things were lively. There were those Trump interventions in Venezuela and Greenland and worrying spluttering noises in high-flying private credit market. This month’s 16% plunge in gold – which had been almost unstoppable since the start of 2025 – also underscored there are increasingly few places to shelter from trouble these days.
Roll on Q2, or rollover Q2? With wars raging, central banks pirouetting and some crucial elections in the calendar, maybe that is the question.
2/ GOOD TIMING
March has been a month of milestones for the oil market – the biggest energy shock in history, the most volatility since COVID and this past week, one of the biggest price flip-flops on record.
When Trump posted on social media on Monday that negotiations with Tehran had been “constructive” and suggested an end to hostilities may be in sight, the oil price lurched 15% lower in minutes.
What was less obvious was a roughly $500-million bet on the crude price 15 minutes prior to Trump’s post, made up overwhelmingly of sell orders when oil was about 2% higher on the day and rising. It is not clear who placed the bet or what might have prompted them to do so. What is clear for traders going into another week fraught with uncertainty is the need to stay light on their feet and glued to their social media feeds.
3/ JOB GROWTH IN FOCUS
The U.S. jobs report for March will offer a crucial view into the economy’s health as investors gauge fallout from the energy price surge.
The employment report on April 3 is expected to show monthly payrolls rose by 48,000, according to a Reuters poll. February’s surprisingly weak report caught Wall Street off guard, showing nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 while the unemployment rate increased to 4.4%.
Investors are watching to see whether the spike in energy prices will start weighing on consumer spending and the broader economy. Uncertainty over the Iran war is also clouding the economic forecasts for the Federal Reserve, with Wall Street pulling back on expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts this year as the oil price surge fuels concerns about rising inflation.
Other U.S. data in the coming week includes retail sales for February and reports on manufacturing and services activity.
4/ CHIPS AND DIPS
South Korea’s trade data for March, due for release on Wednesday, will provide an early indicator of how the global economy is holding up in the face of the war and the resulting shock to energy prices. Korea’s export-heavy economy is a bellwether for global trade and one of the first to report on April’s data calendar.
Its manufacturing fortunes are of even greater interest than usual, not just because of its dependence on Middle Eastern energy imports, but also because its world-leading DRAM chips are of critical importance to the AI sector – and currently in short supply too. And with levels of volatility in the Kospi still elevated following the turmoil of the past few weeks, investors should be certain to take a close look.
5/ BLAST OF INFLATION PAST
Flash euro zone inflation for March is due on Tuesday. After long hovering around the 2% mark, higher energy prices are now expected to push headline inflation up, as they did in 2022. The question is, how large and sustained any jump in inflation might be.
Early data is not painting a pretty picture. Private sector growth in the euro zone slowed sharply in March, with input costs rising to their highest in more than three years and supply chains being significantly disrupted.
Altogether, economic data for March could ramp up pressure on the European Central Bank to hike rates as soon as next month – something that seemed almost unthinkable before the Iran war, but is now being heavily priced in by money markets.
(Graphics by Pasit Kongkunakornkul; Compiled by Amanda Cooper; Editing by Alison Williams)
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