CANBERRA, June 2 (Reuters) – Rainfall over large stretches of parched Australian farmland in the last few weeks has triggered a flurry of late wheat sowing, but growers are wary of a dry El Nino weather pattern in the coming months that could hit yields, farmers and analysts said.
Australia, the world’s third-biggest wheat exporter, has had a turbulent start to the cropping season. Analysts expect the harvest to be far smaller than last year’s due to low wheat prices, sky-high fertiliser costs and dry soil.
But rain across eastern and southern cropping regions has soaked soil in even the driest parts of New South Wales and Queensland in time for farmers to put more seeds in the ground.
“This gives us the opportunity to plant some late crops,” said John Lowe, who farms near Burcher in central New South Wales.
Near Muckadilla in southern Queensland, farmer Scott Loughnan said he had also seized the opportunity to plant more wheat and chickpeas.
“We are a bit more optimistic than we were,” he said.
The rain is likely to add around 500,000 hectares to the area in New South Wales and Queensland planted with wheat and could lift production in the two states by a couple of million tons, Rabobank analyst Vitor Pistoia said.
South Australia and Victoria also had good rainfall in May, adding to already good soil moisture. Western Australia missed out and is now the only part of the country to have significant areas with below-average soil moisture.
Challenges remain, however. Fertiliser prices have rocketed since supply from the Gulf was cut off by the Iran war, with many farmers using less as a result.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting below-median rainfall across all major cropping regions between June and August, as an expected El Nino develops, raising the risk of drought conditions in eastern parts of the country.
The government said on Tuesday it expected Australia to produce 26.7 million tons of wheat this year, some 9 million tons less than last season and the least in three years.
Lowe is planting around 30% less land with wheat and other crops than he planned at the start of the year and Loughnan 50% less. “We’re definitely not going all in,” Loughnan said.
Rain in August and September will be critical for crop development ahead of the harvest in the final quarter of the year.
“We’ll get something out of our cropping endeavours,” said Lowe. “But how much will depend on the heavens.”
(Reporting by Peter Hobson; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
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